What if Keynes was wrong?

“Fear The Boom And Bust” a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Video from YouTube

This is great!!

Get Ready For New GbpUsd Highs

This week the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its estimates for world consumption of oil for the year 2010. It concludes that oil demand will hit a record high.

As summer approaches for the northern hemisphere, the oil demand will increase and when this happens we always look at the Forex trading opportunities for GbpUsd, GbpJpy and EurGbp. Great Britain is an oil exporter and the Cable is very sensitive to changes in the price of oil. Look at the summer of 2008 on a weekly chart to see how changes in the price of oil affected the price of GbpUsd.

Read the full article at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63C1CV20100413

Does anyone thing that GbpUsd will hit 2.1160 again this year?

Dollar vs. Euro

EURO

Spain’s economy forecast for next year has been cut in half as reported by Business Week
(http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-30/bank-of-spain-sees-lower-gdp-bigger-budget-gap-than-government.html) Spain is one of the troubling economies that makes the Euro dynamic.

We are keeping our eyes on the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) to see how they are dragging the Euro down. How long will Germany and France carry these overspenders?

But what really irritates us is that the broker dealing station news never covers these announcements, you know, the one’s that make the market move. Their news is usually the mindless comments like, “the Euro went up X points this morning.”

Wouldn’t you like the broker news alerts to be more relevant?

DOLLAR

The delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans has now jumped to 6%, which is up 400% from a year ago. We have been expecting this number to rise, and now it is official. The article explains that some are expecting the delinquency rate to hit 12% by year’s end.
(http://www.dsnews.com/articles/cmbs-delinquencies-increase-to-6-percent-in-february-2010-03-30)

This along with State civil service layoffs will push the economy back toward a double dip recession.

Each of the above issues should weaken the respective currencies, so the banks will not know which way to trend resulting in much greater volatility.

Don’t you know…this will affect the dollar this year and help the technical trader with more
opportunities to enter good trades?

AUDJPY Update

So I am looking at the AUDJPY with levels between 80.00 and 79.69. It broke out below 79.69 earlier today and to took a quick 25 pips on it. Then it went back into the channel. I am going to set Euodoo on these channel lines with the expectation of it break up above 80.00. I think it will break topside because a few indicators that I use say that we are not done moving up. In fact if you look at the day chart you will see that we have a few moving avg that it may need to get to before we see the AUDJPY continues its downward trend.

80.00 has been a strong area, mainly because we have the 100 MA right there that could be holding this down also. Either way, lets see if we can make a good trade out of these area’s before the weekend.

EURJPY and AUDJPY studies for this week

So Euodoo got me in going long on the EURJPY and the AUDJPY. I am pretty confidnet in going long because we had a pretty decent size drop. I feel like the overall direction of the YENS will be to short, but I don’t mind trying to capture some profits on the up swing.

So here we have the 4hr chart. I have a Black line drawn which shows where a possible trend line bounce may happen. Is is also close to the 55 MA (skinny green line), so I could se it reaching this area of 124.30 and reversing.

We can see on the AUDJPY 4hr chart the same kind of set up. We have a trend wall sitting almost parallel with 55 MA, so 78.80 area might be a good area to take profits and look for the market to consolidate so we can get in shorts and hold them for as long as we can.

So that is what and how I am looking at charts this week. Would love to ride the market up, take some profits and look to get a few shorts locked in because we now know that we have/are breaking week consolidations that have lasted a year. So for me short entries are in the future on the YENs. Those will be the ones that i let ride for as long as possible.